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Canada's Election 2011 Web Popularity Poll

13. 04. 2011

The Canadian federal election is now underway.  Similar to the Toronto's mayor web popularity poll conducted last December, we wanted to evaluate web popularity vs. a correlation to the leading candidate.  This effort is to answer the question: If positive web popularity was an indication of our next Canadian prime minister, who would win?

Note that we are not a polling company, nor have we conducted any scientific audit of our calculations. 9th sphere has no commercial connections to any specific party.  9th sphere's Internet Marketing team has put together a Web Popularity Poll to gain insight and evaluate the impacts of social media, the web's definition of popularity vs. real-world popularity.  We will be updating the poll numbers weekly until the election on May 2, 2011.

The Results this far...

The increased buzz in web popularity among all candidates over the last 7 days definitely shows that election day is near.  Most notably in the last 7 days, Jack Layton had a 16.5% increase in Facebook likes and a 6% increase in Twitter followers. This is more than double an increase when compared to any other candidate.  Despite the increases, Michael Ignatieff has the most Facebook Likes and Stephen Harper still has the most Twitter followers to date.

Jack Layton also had a 32% increase in YouTube Channel views - the largest increase of all the candidates. Michael Ignatieff was a close second at a 14.5% increase.  Overall, Michael Ignatieff still has the highest number of YouTube Channels views, with Stephen Harper at a very distant second.  In an older poll we conducted for the Toronto mayoral race, the number of  video channel views had a much closer correlation to the ultimate winner than any other metric.

We are definitely seeing a correlation between increases in the public opinion polls and our web popularity poll, however the web popularity poll is not currently favouring Stephen Harper as do the opinion polls are.  This Monday, May 2 is Election Day and will help to solidify how accurate web popularity is in predicting Canada’s next Prime Minister.

How it's Calculated

Our findings were based on the use of both automated tools and manual reviews on the day of posting.

We calculated the numbers based on the following criteria:

  1. Number of Video views and comments. This refers to the number of views on each candidate's campaign YouTube Channels.
  2. Number of Twitter followers and Facebook fans. This metric calculated "likes" on Facebook, and the number of followers on Twitter.  We didn't use Twitter "mentions" since we  felt it gave a less accurate indication of positive intent.
  3. Number of times names have been searched online. The Keyword tool that we use allows us to input keywords and provide an estimated number of times the keyword was searched on Google. Although the number of searches are approximates derived from Google's Traffic Estimator system, we looked at who had more requests relative to the other candidates. This metric doesn’t provide the insight to tell us the searchers intent, so it has little weight on the overall poll.

The Details

As of April 26, 2011 (between 10am - noon)

Twitter & Facebook
  Facebook Likes Twitter Followers
Gilles Duceppe (personal) 8,042 56,366
Gilles Duceppe (campaign) - 2,759
Stephen Harper (personal) 52,379 131,386
Stephen Harper (campaign) 16,297 -
Michael Ignatieff (personal) 64,228 95,593
Michael Ignatieff (campaign) 16,033 -
Jack Layton (campaign/personal) 53,698 88,092
Elizabeth May (personal) 10,455 22,899
Elizabeth May (campaign) 11,037 9,697

 

 

Traffic Tools
(Google Over the last 12 months
AdWords Traffic Estimator)
 
Name Local Searches
Gilles Duceppe 3,600
Stephen Harper 60,500
Michael Ignatieff 12,100
Jack Layton 8,100
Elizabeth May 2,900

 

 

Youtube (campaign channels) Gilles Duceppe Stephen Harper Michael Ignatieff Jack Layton Elizabeth May
Channel Views 35,413 115,757 258,529 92,177 31,607

 

As of April 19, 2011 (between 10am - noon)

As expected, all the numbers for the candidates have increased since last week.  The recent calculations as of April 19, 2011 continue to support Michael Ignatieff leading in YouTube video channel views and Facebook Likes.  Similarly, Stephen Harper continued to lead in Twitter followers.  Most interestingly noted, is the 13% jump in Michael Ignatieff's YouTube channel views and both Gilles Duceppe's 10% and Jack Layton's 12% increase in Facebook Likes since last week.

 

Twitter & Facebook
  Facebook Likes Twitter Followers
Gilles Duceppe (personal) 7,635 55,296
Gilles Duceppe (campaign) - 2,546
Stephen Harper (personal) 50,651 128,309
Stephen Harper (campaign) 15,202 -
Michael Ignatieff (personal) 59,400 92,774
Michael Ignatieff (campaign) 14,768 -
Jack Layton (campaign/personal) 46,066 83,018
Elizabeth May (personal) 10,072 22,148
Elizabeth May (campaign) 10,317 9,417

 

 

Traffic Tools
(Google Over the last 12 months
AdWords Traffic Estimator)
 
Name Local Searches
Gilles Duceppe 4,400
Stephen Harper 74,000
Michael Ignatieff 18,100
Jack Layton 12,100
Elizabeth May 5,400

 

 

Youtube (campaign channels) Gilles Duceppe Stephen Harper Michael Ignatieff Jack Layton Elizabeth May
Channel Views 34,379 110,930 225,783 69,823 29,917

 

As of April 13, 2011

The calculations as of April 13, 2011 indicate Michael Ignatieff is leading in YouTube video channel views and Facebook Likes.  Stephen Harper leads in Twitter followers and has the most Google searches for his name.

 

Twitter & Facebook
  Facebook Likes Twitter Followers
Gilles Duceppe (personal) 6,913 53,520
Gilles Duceppe (campaign) - 2,188
Stephen Harper (personal) 48,963 124,901
Stephen Harper (campaign) 13,935 -
Michael Ignatieff (personal) 56,029 89,171
Michael Ignatieff (campaign) 13,896 -
Jack Layton (campaign/personal) 41,183 79,170
Elizabeth May (personal) 9,533 9,350
Elizabeth May (campaign) 9,350 9,016

 

 

Traffic Tools
(Google Over the last 12 months
AdWords Traffic Estimator)
 
Name Local Searches
Gilles Duceppe 3,600
Stephen Harper 60,500
Michael Ignatieff 12,100
Jack Layton 8,100
Elizabeth May 2,900

 

 

Youtube (campaign channels) Gilles
Duceppe
Stephen
Harper
Michael
Ignatieff
Jack
Layton
Elizabeth
May
Channel Views 33,584 106,483 199,301 65,610 28,058

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